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Fed’s 2% Inflation Goal: A Long, Slow Fight
Another month, another hotter than expected inflation report. This time it was one which the Fed focus on: “Core PCE”. Expectations were for 4.3% YoY – it came at white-hot 4.7%. Where is the problem? Simple… services. And until we see unemployment tick higher… core services inflation will remain sticky. The Fed has a long fight on its hands… and the market is only recently connecting those dots
Equities Often Slow to Connect the Dots
Last week I warned the market was poised for a sharp pullback. This week we got it. In short, both fundamentally and technically the market felt vulnerable. Market multiples pushed 19x forward on little substance. And from there, it did not take much for the bulls to lose their nerve…
Managing Risk During ‘FOMO’
There are three important facets to the game of speculating required to make you consistently profitable: (1) understanding your psychology and emotions; (2) a deep understanding of how to manage your risk profile; and (3) access to a wide array of strategies that suit any range of market conditions. Today I think the first of these could be costing a lot of people money… in this case the “fear of missing out”. This is a dangerous mindset which ‘infects’ a lot of speculators… don’t let it be you.
Why a Rising US 10-Yr Yield Presents Opportunity
Bond yields are once again starting to rally. Rates are likely to be higher for longer. The US 10-year is now pressing 3.80% – and likely to exceed 4.0% in the coming weeks. The question is how how far will it go? My view is it will unlikely stay above 4.40% for any sustained period. And if anything – will resume it’s downtrend in 2024 as we approach recession. That represents an opportunity for investors – here is how I am trading it.