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It’s Not If “Long & Variable Lags” Hit… It’s When
Milton Friedman coined the expression “monetary policy operates with long and variable lags”. In the 1970s – he felt it was up to around two years before those effects are felt. Today it’s believed to be sooner – given open transparency of Fed speak and data tools available. But is it? It’s been two years since the Fed’s first hike and we’re just starting to see labor markets soften and consumer demand weaken. Have the full effects of tighter policy been absorbed? I don’t think so.
Apple: Ready to Take Another Bite?
Apple is ~15% off its all time high as it lags its large cap peers. Concerns of iPhone growth and China have rattled investors. However, it’s not unusual for this stock to pull back. Since 2107, we have seen 11 retraces – offering patient investors buying opportunity. From my lens, Apple is a reasonable long-term buy around $165. And if you can get it cheaper – add to it. Over the next 3 years – I think it will be well over $200 as earnings top $8.00 per share.
Money Supply is Expanding: Fuel for Stocks
When the supply of money expands – it’s typically very good for stocks. For example, the S&P 500 index is said to appreciate at an average annualized pace of 14.02% when liquidity expands. However, when it contracts, that gain was only around 7.0%. Today money supply is once again expanding after one of the largest contractions in recent history. This has the potential to be very good for investors. As they say, it’s always easier swimming with the tide.
Consumer Confidence Drops as Delinquencies Continue to Rise
Warren Buffett expressed caution around overpaying in his most recent letter. Jamie Dimon – JP Morgan CEO – said today there’s a 50% chance of recession – with a soft landing slim. News of falling consumer confidence and rising credit delinquencies also hit the tape today. This begs a question: is the consumer in 2024 stronger than what we saw in 2023? My guess is no.