The Intelligent Investor

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Table of Contents

Introduction (Time: 5 Mins)

  • Warren Buffett described Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor,” the ‘best book about investing ever written’
  • Centers on three core investing principles: (i) capital preservation; (ii) adequate and sustainable returns over the long-term; and (iii) overcoming self-defeating behaviors; 
  • By focusing on these principles – investors are more likely to achieve long-term success.
  • Investors analyze a company’s intrinsic worth and allow time for their investment to prosper; vs traders who chase momentum and price trends (irrespective of the company’s fundamentals).
  • Trading is inherently risky and often leads to losses – especially for individual investors.
  • Successful investing requires patience, discipline, and a long-term perspective. Avoid getting caught up in market hype cycles and ‘formulas’ that promise unsustainable riches.
  • Between 1997 and 2021, inflation was very low, leading some to believe it’s no longer a concern. Post COVID we were given a stark reminder of why inflation matters and how it impacts your purchasing power and investments.
  • Certain high-yielding stocks, commodities, property and REITs; and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) tend to do well during times of high inflation – protecting an investor’s wealth
  • We tend to focus on nominal (dollar amount) changes in our income and investments, not real (inflation-adjusted) changes. This matters. Always measure returns and economic data series in real terms
  • The intelligent investor will understand the long-term trends (and cycles) in stock prices, earnings, and dividends to gain insights into the relative attractiveness or risks of investing in stocks at any given time
  • Markets will always oscillate between excessive optimism and pessimism for future market returns. This creates powerful opportunities for the patient investor who can act rationally and independently.
  • Everything always reverts to the mean over the long-term; however prices spend very little time at the mean. They are mostly “not too bad” or “not terrible
  • The fundamental characteristics of an investment portfolio are primarily determined by the investor’s financial situation and risk tolerance
  • The expected rate of return on an investment should be commensurate with the level of risk the investor is willing to assume
  • A balanced portfolio should include both high-grade bonds and common stocks. The ideal allocation between the two depends on the investor’s risk tolerance and market conditions
  • Even when stocks have advantages (like inflation protection) – overpaying can wipe those out.
  • 4 sound rules for stock selection: (i) diversify modestly; (ii) stick to large, financially sound companies; (iii) ideally a long history of dividend payments; and (iv) set a limit on the price you’ll pay relative to earnings
  • Higher-growth companies are tempting, but their prices often get ahead of themselves.
  • When venturing beyond the highest-grade securities, an investor must only do so when there’s a clear discount to what that asset is worth (a “margin of safety“).
  • Whether it’s the hot IPO or a company refinancing its debt – avoid new offerings. The incentives of the sellers, and the psychology of the buyers, often lead to inflated prices.
  • Chasing a slightly higher yield on a shaky bond or preferred stock is a bad trade if it comes with significant risk of losing your principal.
  • Cautiously selecting growth stocks, purchasing bargain issues, and focusing on special situations. Each strategy leverages specific market cycles, valuations, or unique situations, requiring careful analysis but potentially yielding substantial returns.
  • There are bond options which present higher rewards for investors willing to navigate moderate risks, as compared to traditional, low-risk bonds.
  • To maintain above-average returns, Graham advises investing in unpopular large companies, bargain issues, and stocks during market downturns

💥 Chapter 8: The Investor and Market Fluctuations (Time: 9 Mins)

  • Prioritizing fundamental business value over market-driven price fluctuations
  • Timing the market is inherently unreliable for most investors; relying on these approaches can lead to speculative behavior
  • During periods of heightened irrationality – investors should remain calm and capitalize on longer-term opportunities
  • Mutual funds, an American innovation, enables investors to invest through diversified, professionally managed portfolios. They are affordable, regulated, and convenient, though they carry risks like high fees, tax burdens, and inconsistent performance
  • Many investors mistakenly choose funds based on recent high returns, assuming these will continue.Past performance is a poor predictor of future success, and high-fee, high-turnover funds typically yield lower returns. Target low-cost index funds
  • Investors are advised to select funds with low fees, aligned management, and strategies that match their goals
  • Investors should not blindly rely on advice, even from reputable sources. It’s crucial to cultivate your own understanding of investing principles, critically evaluate recommendations, and align investment decisions with your personal goals and risk tolerance
  • Investment counselors offer valuable services for those seeking a conservative approach focused on capital preservation. However, investors should have realistic expectations and understand that consistent outperformance is not guaranteed
  • While brokerage firms are essential for executing trades, investors need to be aware of potential conflicts of interest. 
  • Effective security analysis involves a multifaceted approach that goes beyond just examining financial statements. It includes evaluating the business, industry, management quality, and potential risks, in addition to projecting future earnings and applying appropriate valuation techniques
  • While bond analysis primarily focuses on assessing safety and the issuer’s ability to meet its debt obligations, stock analysis is more complex, involving a combination of quantitative and qualitative factors to estimate future earnings and determine a fair valuation
  • When evaluating growth stocks with high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, it’s crucial to incorporate a margin of safety in your analysis. Future growth projections are inherently uncertain, and investors should be wary of overly optimistic assumptions
  • Investors should be wary of overemphasizing a single year’s earnings, as they can be influenced by various accounting treatments and may not reflect a company’s true long-term earning power
  • Companies can manipulate earnings through special charges, tax credits, depreciation methods, and other accounting choices. Investors need to be critical and look beyond the headline numbers to understand the true profitability of a company
  • Analyze average earnings over a longer period, consider the company’s growth rate and its sustainability, and evaluate its performance relative to industry conditions and long-term trends, rather than fixating on short-term fluctuations
  • High valuations entail greater risk. Conservative investors might find more value in modestly priced companies – which offer a greater margin of safety and strong underlying fundamentals
  • Don’t solely rely on market sentiment or past performance. Conduct thorough research, analyze financial statements, and consider industry dynamics and future prospects before making investment decisions
  • The choice between growth and value stocks should align with your individual investment philosophy and risk tolerance. Understand your own preferences and prioritize investments that match your long-term goals and comfort level with risk
  • 1929, 1968, 1999 and 2008 are all good examples of how (extreme) market sentiment can drive valuations to unsustainable levels. Investors should be cautious of chasing high-growth narratives and focus on companies with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations, even if they seem less exciting in a euphoric market
  • Applying objective criteria such as size, financial strength, earnings stability over time, etc. can help investors identify potentially undervalued companies and avoid overpaying for growth.
  • For defensive investors, diversification is key to mitigating risk and achieving satisfactory returns. Avoid trying to predict the “best” stocks and instead focus on building a well-rounded portfolio of quality companies
  • .While achieving above-average returns is theoretically possible, it’s a challenging endeavor that demands significant effort, discipline, and a contrarian mindset. Investors must be willing to go against the grain and seek out undervalued opportunities neglected by the market.
  • Rather than chasing high-growth narratives, enterprising investors should focus on identifying undervalued companies with solid fundamentals
  • Utilize quantitative criteria to screen for potential investments and identify companies with strong financial positions and reasonable valuations.
  • Applying objective criteria such as size, financial strength, earnings stability over time, etc. can help investors identify potentially undervalued companies and avoid overpaying for growth. These criteria provide a framework for evaluating investments and filtering out speculative opportunities
  • Successful stock picking involves analyzing a company’s financial strength, earnings stability, management quality, and valuation. Look for undervalued companies with solid fundamentals and shareholder-friendly management
  • Develop a disciplined and consistent approach to stock selection, avoiding impulsive decisions and remaining patient even when your investments don’t immediately appreciate
  • Dig into the company’s actual financial health, earnings quality, and long-term prospects. This includes carefully examining financial statements and understanding key ratios like interest coverage, debt-to-equity, free cash flow, working capital to debt etc
  • Rapid expansion fueled by debt is a major red flag. Scrutinize companies making acquisitions, especially if they involve taking on significant debt or using complex accounting methods to mask the financial impact
  • Pay attention to red flags like a company consistently paying no income taxes or reporting “record earnings” after years of losses. Be skeptical of unusual accounting entries or discrepancies between reported earnings and the company’s actual financial position. Free cash flow is the truest measure of a company’s health (not earnings)
  • Hype cycles will lead investors to ignore financial fundamentals, often resulting in poor long-term returns. Investing in companies with solid fundamentals generally provides a margin of safety with adequate and stable returns
  • In the short-term, the market is a “voting machine” in a popularity contest. However, ultimately it’s a “weighing machine”. Companies become overvalued due to popularity – but only those with real value will sustain.
  • Speculative bubbles are part of the market. Our job is to avoid participation. This often means being comfortable with looking ‘wrong’ in the near-term
  • Investors should actively engage in corporate governance, holding management accountable for performance and ensuring responsible decision-making
  • Companies must adopt either (i) transparent and systematic dividend policies; or (ii) demonstrating that retained earnings are driving continued sustainable growth
  • Stock buybacks often prioritize executive gains over shareholder interests, especially when used to offset stock option dilution. Shareholders should demand fair practices, accountability, and transparency in buyback and compensation programs
  • The cornerstone of Graham’s investing model is creating a “margin of safety” – which involves purchasing securities at prices well below their intrinsic value
  • Diversification complements the margin of safety by reducing risk across a portfolio. While individual investments may underperform, spreading assets across various securities increases the likelihood of overall gains, mirroring the principles of insurance underwriting. 
  • True investing is grounded in thorough analysis, compelling reasoning, and a margin of safety. Speculation, by contrast, relies on momentum, predictions and lacks a solid foundation. This distinction encourages disciplined, evidence-based decision-making to achieve consistent investment success.
For a full list of posts from 2017…