This week saw the second largest banking collapse in US history and the first since 2008. Silicon Valley Bank – with a market cap of $18B only 4 weeks ago – collapsed Friday after a furious bank run. SVB’s collapse was far less to do with the Fed raising rates – it was all to do with poor risk management – forced to sell their holding of treasuries at a loss. But this is nothing we have not seen before….
Equities Often Slow to Connect the Dots
Last week I warned the market was poised for a sharp pullback. This week we got it. In short, both fundamentally and technically the market felt vulnerable. Market multiples pushed 19x forward on little substance. And from there, it did not take much for the bulls to lose their nerve…
Managing Risk During ‘FOMO’
There are three important facets to the game of speculating required to make you consistently profitable: (1) understanding your psychology and emotions; (2) a deep understanding of how to manage your risk profile; and (3) access to a wide array of strategies that suit any range of market conditions. Today I think the first of these could be costing a lot of people money… in this case the “fear of missing out”. This is a dangerous mindset which ‘infects’ a lot of speculators… don’t let it be you.
Why a Rising US 10-Yr Yield Presents Opportunity
Bond yields are once again starting to rally. Rates are likely to be higher for longer. The US 10-year is now pressing 3.80% – and likely to exceed 4.0% in the coming weeks. The question is how how far will it go? My view is it will unlikely stay above 4.40% for any sustained period. And if anything – will resume it’s downtrend in 2024 as we approach recession. That represents an opportunity for investors – here is how I am trading it.
For a full list of posts from 2017…