The business of forecasting is very difficult… what I think is a fool’s errand. But when it comes to forecasting the economics of 330M people – their behaviour – and the specific impact on stock prices – it’s near impossible.
Wage Growth of 5.2% to Strengthen Fed’s Resolve
The US economy added 315K jobs in August. Good news. However, wage inflation ripped higher at 5.2% YoY. Based on this, it’s likely the Fed will continue with a period of ‘unusually high’ rate hikes to reduce demand and wage inflation.
August Wasn’t Kind… Don’t Expect Sept to be Better
August wasn’t kind for stocks – with the S&P 500 losing 4.2%. The market is now just 8.8% off the June 3636 low… expect this to be retested
Powell Delivers a Blunt Message
If it wasn’t already clear – it is now. Interest rates are going sharply higher and for longer. Powell’s 8-minute Jackson Hole speech was carefully scripted – using words like “pain” to prepare the market for what lies ahead.
For a full list of posts from 2017…