Last weekend I questioned whether markets could break out to the upside; or perform what trader’s refer to as a “back and fill”. My best guess was the latter. In turns out, things traded ‘per the script’, where the S&P 500 suffered its worst week since March 2023 – giving back 4.20%. The Nasdaq fared far worse – shedding ~6% – led by large losses in popular AI chip stocks. So why are market’s worried? It’s concerns about growth. With a market trading close to ~22x forward earnings – expecting YoY EPS growth of 11% — that’s not consistent with ‘slowdown’ scenario.
Quarterly Real PCE Up YoY… As Savings Fall
The market received three important data points this week – inflation, wages and consumer spending – and it was mostly good news. First up, inflation continues to moderate. The Fed’s preferred inflation index – Core PCE – showed prices increased at a moderate pace for June— confirming excessively high inflation is behind us. However, prices are still ~30% higher than 3-years ago… they’re just rising at a slower pace. Whilst inflation is important – I wanted to know if consumers are still spending? The answer is they are – and by whatever means possible. They are drawing down on their savings and ramping the use of credit cards – which has seen card delinquencies hit decade highs. But from equities perspective – higher spending is good news. This feeds the ‘soft landing’ narrative….
Wall Street Cheer a “Strong Jobs” Report… Should They?
Wall St. cheered a perceived ‘strong’ monthly June jobs report. The economy added 206K jobs last month – however the unemployment rate moved to 4.1% – its highest level in 2 years. Here’s the thing: there was a lot of weakness in the labor market – with most of the jobs coming from government. In addition, April’s job gains were revised lower by 111K. And May was revised lower by almost 60K. I think there is material underlying weakness (reflected in slower Real GDP and PCE) and perhaps enough for the Fed to start cutting rates in September or November.
Why ‘Soft Landings’ Deserve Scrutiny
What impact will a ‘soft-landing’ have on current stock valuations And does there need to be a recession to experience a meaningful (e.g. 12%+) decline? My short answer is no. The gist of this post is to remind investors that you don’t need a definitive line-of-sight to a potential recession before protecting gains. I say that because recessions are lagging events – which come at the very end of the cycle. By the time they arrive – the economic damage is already done. Therefore, we need to be in front of the curve. Typically in the 9-months leading up to a recession – stocks continue to trade at or near highs – as analysts raise their outlooks. Unemployment and earnings are usually strong – as GDP keeps its head above zero. But those who are able to understand where we are in the business cycle will pay careful attention to what’s happening shortly after peak economic growth.
For a full list of posts from 2017…