In my experience – growth ultimately defies fear. And whilst stocks will always climb the wall of worry – over time – growth prevails. The challenge for investors is the pathway is rarely in a straight line. Put another way, markets are constantly in a tug-of-war between opposing forces. Consider what we see today… we have a surprisingly robust US economy, defying expectations of a slowdown. Tailwinds include Fed easing, disinflation and a consumer which continues to spend. The counterforce to the further growth are escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East – which threaten to disrupt the global economic order
Real PCE: Seeing Around Corners
As an investor, your job is to carefully assess the risks against the rewards. A large part of that equation is knowing exactly where we are in the business cycle. For example, consider the following questions: (a) do you think we’re at the beginning or middle of an economic advance (with more to go)? or (b) do you think we’re about to encounter a significant change in direction? and (c) if so, is that change for the better or for the worse? Your answer is very important. It’s far better to invest (or take more risk) at the start of the business cycle vs the end. Therefore, how will make that decision? How are you able to determine where we are? I will offer a market signal which is arguably more consistent and reliable than most indicators.
For a full list of posts from 2017…