It’s very important we balance the near-term ‘optimism’ in equities with what we see with leading macro indicators such as gold, the US dollar index, treasury bonds and credit default swap spreads.
For example, whilst bond investors are typically early, over the long-run they are generally right.
July 31 I wrote “Gold and Silver are Hot… Perhaps Too Hot!”
Gold was ~$2,000 an ounce and I suggested: (a) if you’ve enjoyed the run up in gold the past few weeks – take at least half profit; and (b) if you don’t have a position- don’t initiate a long position here.
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