All things GameStop aside – it was a wild week on Wall Street.
Markets saw their biggest weekly fall (4%) since last October… with the “fear index” surging almost 50%
Technical traders will be closely watching the 10-week moving average this week – as a break often means more selling ahead. More on that in a moment…
Here’s today’s exam question: Is the near-term low in? Or will this two-day bounce be another head-fake? Today I will present the bullish case…
August was the best monthly performance for the S&P 500 since 1986… posting an ~7% gain. However, what’s interesting is the VIX is also rising with the market… this is unusual.
You could be forgiven for thinking it wasn’t a bad day on the market. The headlines will say the Dow only lost 26 points or 0.1%. Not bad. From mine, it was far from what I would deem ‘healthy’ trading…. somethings amiss.
The all-important COVID infection curve gave us some small signs of hope. And whilst the trend is still very early (far too early to call any victory) – anything lower in terms of infections, deaths etc is good news…. but there’s a long way to go.
Peak fear appears to be behind us. The VIX has reversed sharply from levels a couple of weeks ago. However, that doesn’t mean the market won’t trade lower. I think it will…
Today is “Day One of Full Lockdown” for San Francisco. It’s surreal. It was only three months ago (Dec 31) we were talking about an economy which was considered (by some) to be almost recession proof.
“May you live in interesting times”… This is an expression which purports to be a translation of a traditional Chinese curse. Ahhh the irony. China – just what have you done?
Today we rallied 9%. It’s best day since 2008. But don’t get too excited. I think it’s premature to celebrate – there’s a lot more work to do and it will take several months (not weeks).
Not since 2008 has the market been gripped with so much fear. COVID-19 (or Coronavirus) continues to spread at pace – with the number infected now exceeding 109,000 (a jump of ~3% in one day)
