If there’s one thing that keeps the US going… it’s the availability of cheap credit. Love it or hate it – the US is a credit driven economy. If credit dries up – it’s goodnight nurse. The US consumer now owes close to $1Trillion on their credit card – a 17% jump from a year ago and a record high. More than 33% U.S. adults have more credit card debt than emergency savings
"Macro / Economy"
Expensive and Risky
Stan Druckenmiller – one of the greatest investors of all time – is issuing a stark warning. Tread carefully. He echoes much of my sentiment of the past few months; i.e. not only do I think the market is fully valued at 19x forward earnings — it represents meaningful downside risk. What concerns me most is what the market assumes will happen over the next ~6-9 months. E.g., at the time of writing, it sees rates being slashed three times this year. Is that realistic with Core CPI YoY is still traveling around 5.5%? It also sees earnings growth. Will that happen opposite a recession? It’s a long list of assumptions…
A Very Narrow Market
Last week all eyes were on large cap tech earnings. They delivered a mixed bag… but on the whole ‘better than feared’. Q1 earnings didn’t fall off a cliff. Single digit growth (top and bottom line) was largely cheered – which highlights how low expectations were. Next week eyes turn to the Fed. The market has priced in a 25 bps hike for May – but will it be a ‘dovish’ hike – where they offer language to suggest a pause in June? Or will they say “there’s more work to do”?
Yields Plunge – The Signal It’s Sending
Bond yields are falling. And fast. The question is why? In short, the bond market is now pricing in a recession. It sees growth stalling… and believes the Fed will embark on rate cuts in the second half. But have equities got the memo? Not yet. They are trading at close to 19x forward earnings… as big tech drags it higher. From mine, I think the market feels vulnerable here.
For a full list of posts from 2017…