I have four key hypothesis into how I am positioned for year end: (i) 2023 will bring a recession; (ii) earnings will contract; (iii) multiples will compress; and (iv) it’s premature to think about fighting the Fed. Let’s explore…
"Macro / Economy"
Bear Market Rally Approaching Resistance
My best guess is the current 11% bear market rally could go a little further yet (e.g. maybe 5-6%). However we are now approaching a technical area of resistance. I also offer a new trade on TLT… on the thesis that yields will reverse course at some point in 2023
Things Starting to Look a Little Better
Markets are slowly but surely starting to look better. Yes – they are 25% off their highs – but that’s a healthy development. The way we make money is buying well. And with a little patience – we hope they go lower. My S&P500 target remains around 3200…
Druckenmiller Warns of 2023 ‘Hard Landing’
There are few smarter in the investing world than Stan Druckenmiller. For 30 straight years he averaged a 30% CARG whilst not having a single losing year. It’s unparalleled. He is warning that stocks are still over-valued (despite a 24% correction) and a hard-landing is likely by the end of 2023
For a full list of posts from 2017…