Soft landing? That’s the market consensus. I am not buying it. For example, retail data for December was horrible – it’s third straight month of declines. Are US consumers tapped out? Their savings rates are now at all time lows? Keep your eye on credit quality – how is that looking?
"Macro / Economy"
Fed Gets Green Light… Market Thinks Otherwise
The market ripped higher on news of a softer-than-expected wage inflation report. But haven’t we seen this script before? Markets have a recent history of front-running the Fed… only to be bitterly disappointed. From my lens, nothing in this print changes the script for the Fed. And markets are not set up to hear that…
5 Charts to Shape 2023
Inflation, rate hikes, the US dollar and bond yields all shaped how things traded in 2022. What will shape investment strategies and sentiment this year? From mine, look no further than what we see with employment, wage inflation and economic growth. And from there – how this dictates the pace and duration of Fed tightening.
Foolish Forecasts and Questions Worth Asking
It’s the last trading day for 2022 – which means it’s time for some ‘foolish forecasts’. The S&P 500 booked a 19.4% loss this year… its 4th worst since 1945. My foolish forecast is the lows are not yet in… however 2023 will represent opportunity.
For a full list of posts from 2017…