It’s that time of year… where “Sell in May and Go Away” makes its typically annual appearance. Personally I don’t give it much weight… basically none. Who invests with the timeframe a few months? Not many that consistently make money. But therein lies the rub – this saying is only relevant as a function of how you choose to invest. Your time horizons are likely very different to mine. This post will offer background where the adage comes from. From there, I will try and answer the question of whether the market is “euphoric”. And finally, I’ll share some names that I’ve been adding to…. it’s not NVDA.
When Is the Right Time to Buy Bonds?
Treasury yields are surging… the U.S., 10-year treasury – a rate which every financial asset is tied to – has ripped back above 4.60%. Credit card rates, home loans, auto loans… you name it… have all increased. The last time UY.S. 10-year yields traded above 4.60% – the S&P 500 was ~20% lower. From mine, the divergence is a head-scratcher… however, what I can say is risk assets have a tougher time advancing when yields push beyond this zone. The question is – is now a good time to increase bond exposure? I think the answer is yes.. and here’s why
S&P 500 +10.1% for Q1 – Can it Continue?
If you asked me at the end of December whether I thought the S&P 500 would be up ~10% at the end of the first quarter this year – I would have said “unlikely”. And yet here we are. With the promise of (coming) interest rate cuts and continued strong economic growth (implying growth in earnings) – US equities have arguably exceeded most analysts full year targets. For we have already exceeded all but 1 of 18 full year S&P500 forecasts “experts” made at the beginning of the year.
Will Powell Heed Volcker’s Wisdom?
Next week Fed Chair Jay Powell will deliver the FOMC’s March statement on monetary policy. Interest rates are not expected to change – however his sentiment might. When we last heard from Powell – he was dovish – igniting a rally in risk assets. However, with inflation heating up and a tight job market – Powell may perform another pivot. Markets expect three rate cuts this year – those expectations might be dialed back to just two.
For a full list of posts from 2017…