Quiet Week Ahead of Fed Meeting
Two things worth watching this week:
(1) possible “bridging” deal (partial stimulus) from Congress; and (2)
sentiment from the Fed’s last meeting for the year. Both could be market moving…
3800 to 4500: Bank’s Bullish Targets for Next Year
Major investment banks are bullish on 2021… very bullish. This comes as global markets achieved $100 Trillion in market cap. Thanks central banks! Without “free money” – we would likely be at “half” that level. $100 Trillion is also 115% of global GDP… you might also say 1.15x sales.
Weak Nov. Jobs Report Fuels Further Stimulus Hopes
The November jobs report was far worse than expected. The U.S. economy added only 245,000 jobs in November — well below the 500,000 that many economists hoped…
Value Stocks are Hot… Here’s One on my List
The trading story for the past 30-days (or so) has been all about the reflation trade.
You might also say it’s the return of beta names – where almost a year’s under-performance is now translating into over-performance in a very short space of time. Here’s my pick for one of the best “value” stocks… INTC
Yield Curve Steepens… and My Latest Trade on CRM
2021 optimism is in the air. Why? Look no further than rates and yields. This is a zero rate environment or negative in real terms. As such, when it comes to stock valuations – with borrowing costs so low (bond yields at record lows) – future earnings should be discounted at a lower rate which implies corporate valuations should be higher
What Happens After a Double-Digit Return Month?
It’s exceptionally rare to see double-digit broad market returns in any one month.
In fact, we have only seen seven the since 1992… with one of those earlier this year (April)
Prior to 2020, the most recent double-digit return month was in October 2011, as the market recovered from a U.S. Treasury downgrade.
From there, we need to go back a further twenty years to December 1991.
S&P 500 to Gain 11%+ for Nov… as Online Sales Surge
“Black Friday” is generally regarded as one of the largest U.S. shopping days of the year…
It’s also the start of the Christmas holiday season shopping period.
This is a closely watched event given ~70% of all US GDP is a function of what consumer’s spend.
What’s more – it gives us insights into how and where consumers are shopping (e.g., online versus physical; specific categories etc).
Gold: It’s Time to go Long
Gold has been sold heavily since the beginning of August… but today I will present the case as to why it’s time to buy.
The price peaked at US$2089 a troy ounce – however has since fallen to around $1810 at the time of writing.
That’s a fall of just over 13%… and this spells opportunity
Shattering Market Records on the Basis of ‘Smooth Sailing’ Next Year
Santa is coming…
He might be a little late but the gift of more cheap money is almost certainly on the way.
Great news!
Low credit spreads, trillions in fiscal stimulus with short-term rates anchored below zero through 2023 is “Christmas” for risk assets.
All that was missing was some visibility past the pandemic..
Are the Stars Aligning for 2021?
The market’s can’t put a foot wrong…
Hot on the news of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines – today it was AstraZeneca’s turn. The COVID-19 cavalry is certainly on the way…
However, what’s better than a vaccine? From the market’s view – perhaps Biden’s nomination of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary.
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