If we needed confirmation the market isn’t cheap – the Oracle of Omaha told us as much in his annual letter to shareholders. He sits on a record amount of cash – over $167B. But he is no hurry to overpay. Buffett’s letter is compulsory reading for anyone who is serious about investment. It’s filled with timeliness insights from the mind of one of the world’s greatest investors (arguably the greatest). For example, very few (if any?) have averaged a CAGR of 19.8% for 58 years (see page 17) vs the S&P 500 10.2%
"Investing Lessons"
Mean Reversion: Index Risks & the ‘M7’
In the game of asset speculation – mean reversion suggests that over time an asset will eventually return to its average price if it drifts or spikes too far from that average level. If applied, it can often help you avoid paying too much. My thinking is the S&P 500 has now drifted too far from the longer-term mean. History has always told us that inevitably prices will mean revert. This post explores the potential risks to investors if simply choosing to passively invest via the benchmark Index. Look no further than the so-called “Mag 7” – which constitute more than a 30% weight.
Three Cheers for 5,000!
This week the S&P 500 closed above 5,000 for the first time. Another milestone as we climb the ‘wall of worry’. Over the past 100+ years the S&P 500 has averaged capital gains of ~8.5% per year plus dividends of ~2.0%. That’s a total return of close to 10.5% (on average). If you compound 10.5% per year over 20 years (i.e., ‘CAGR’) – that’s a 637% increase. But as we know, the pathway is rarely smooth. Some years the market may “add 20%” and others it could give back a similar margin (or worse). And we saw this happen recently. However over the long run – markets will rise more often than they fall.
Charlie: More than a Brilliant Investor
“The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more” – Charlie Munger. Very few things will change your trajectory in life (and/or business) as much as learning and education.The more you dedicate your time to obtaining knowledge – the better you will be. But take it a step further… the pathway your life takes will be a function of the decisions you make. Which begs the question – how does one make higher-quality decisions and/or fewer mistakes? Charlie Munger offered us a framework of mental models to do just that… this will be his real legacy.
For a full list of posts from 2017…