2022 will be remembered as an important turning point. Not because the S&P 500 surrendered 15% to 20%… it will be remembered for the tectonic shift in monetary policy. For the first time in over a decade – interest rates are finally trading at closer to “normal levels”. What’s more, we are not going back to 0% to 2.0% rates for a long time. And that has many implications for how to choose to invest…
"Investing Lessons"
Watching the VIX for a Market Reversal
With the VIX approaching a level of 20 – the market feels overly complacent. The S&P 500 is now around 15% off its October low – resembling what we saw in June. My guess is should we see the VIX below 20 – expect the market to reverse shortly thereafter.
We’ve Seen This Script Before
Q3 2022 big-tech earnings are behind us – with only one winner. Apple reported inline results with weak guidance – but enough to send the stock 7% higher. The rest however were slaughtered on weak earnings and forward guidance. But it was the Facebook’s “metacurse” which sent the stock reeling almost 30%… Amazon was also crushed on a poor Q4 outlook.
Druckenmiller Warns of 2023 ‘Hard Landing’
There are few smarter in the investing world than Stan Druckenmiller. For 30 straight years he averaged a 30% CARG whilst not having a single losing year. It’s unparalleled. He is warning that stocks are still over-valued (despite a 24% correction) and a hard-landing is likely by the end of 2023
For a full list of posts from 2017…