Is 75 the new 25? Fed funds futures are now pricing in a nominal rate of 4.5% to 4.75% for February 2023, with the first interest rate cut coming in November 2023. Markets are now slowly coming to accept this new reality…
"Interest Rates / Bonds"
Markets Waking Up to Fed Reality
The market continued to work its way lower this week – waking up to the reality of the road ahead with respect to higher rates and inflation. However, some believe the Fed should pause immediately…
Fed Faces a Long Fight with Sticky Inflation
CPI and Core PCE continued to rise over August. Core PCE – the Fed’s preferred measure – was more than double expectations and 3x the Fed’s target rate. Rates are to remain higher for longer.
The Case for Retesting the June Lows
It would be remiss of investors to rule out a retest of the June lows. This post explains my reasons not just technically (which has served us well) — but more so fundamentally. Have we fully priced in the impact of where rates are likely to head in addition to QT?
For a full list of posts from 2017…