How fast? How high; And for how long? That’s the framework when thinking about the Fed’s policy moves. From mine, the market are offside in terms of how high and particularly how long. What we do know is the pace will slow.
"Interest Rates / Bonds"
My Hypothesis into Year End
I have four key hypothesis into how I am positioned for year end: (i) 2023 will bring a recession; (ii) earnings will contract; (iii) multiples will compress; and (iv) it’s premature to think about fighting the Fed. Let’s explore…
Classic Bear Market Rip
Stocks are likely to push higher through to the end of the year. It’s what we usually find after mid-term elections. But for now, this feels like another bear market rally… which will likely find resistance around the zone of 4100 on the S&P 500. We are a long way from any Fed “pause or pivot”…
Inflation: How Hot is ‘Too Hot’?
CPI for October is likely to come in hot… expect a high 7-handle. But how much is too hot? Anything north of 8% cements another 75 bps; however something closer to 7.7% may give some hope the Fed can tap the brakes.
For a full list of posts from 2017…