Is 75 the new 25? Fed funds futures are now pricing in a nominal rate of 4.5% to 4.75% for February 2023, with the first interest rate cut coming in November 2023. Markets are now slowly coming to accept this new reality…
"Inflation"
Fed Faces a Long Fight with Sticky Inflation
CPI and Core PCE continued to rise over August. Core PCE – the Fed’s preferred measure – was more than double expectations and 3x the Fed’s target rate. Rates are to remain higher for longer.
The Case for Retesting the June Lows
It would be remiss of investors to rule out a retest of the June lows. This post explains my reasons not just technically (which has served us well) — but more so fundamentally. Have we fully priced in the impact of where rates are likely to head in addition to QT?
The Pendulum Swings
When things are going well and prices are high, investors rush to buy, forgetting all prudence. Then, when there’s chaos all around and assets are on the bargain counter, they lose all willingness to bear risk and rush to sell. And it will ever be so – Howard Marks
For a full list of posts from 2017…