The two biggest headwinds facing stocks are higher rates (bond yields) and the US dollar index. Both are yet to peak or show signs of a downward trend. And until they do – we can’t call a bottom in equities.
Things Starting to Look a Little Better
Markets are slowly but surely starting to look better. Yes – they are 25% off their highs – but that’s a healthy development. The way we make money is buying well. And with a little patience – we hope they go lower. My S&P500 target remains around 3200…
The Only Way is Up
Is 75 the new 25? Fed funds futures are now pricing in a nominal rate of 4.5% to 4.75% for February 2023, with the first interest rate cut coming in November 2023. Markets are now slowly coming to accept this new reality…
Fed Faces a Long Fight with Sticky Inflation
CPI and Core PCE continued to rise over August. Core PCE – the Fed’s preferred measure – was more than double expectations and 3x the Fed’s target rate. Rates are to remain higher for longer.
For a full list of posts from 2017…