August wasn’t kind for stocks – with the S&P 500 losing 4.2%. The market is now just 8.8% off the June 3636 low… expect this to be retested
The Case for Retesting the June Lows
It would be remiss of investors to rule out a retest of the June lows. This post explains my reasons not just technically (which has served us well) — but more so fundamentally. Have we fully priced in the impact of where rates are likely to head in addition to QT?
Powell Delivers a Blunt Message
If it wasn’t already clear – it is now. Interest rates are going sharply higher and for longer. Powell’s 8-minute Jackson Hole speech was carefully scripted – using words like “pain” to prepare the market for what lies ahead.
The Pendulum Swings
When things are going well and prices are high, investors rush to buy, forgetting all prudence. Then, when there’s chaos all around and assets are on the bargain counter, they lose all willingness to bear risk and rush to sell. And it will ever be so – Howard Marks
For a full list of posts from 2017…