Is 75 the new 25? Fed funds futures are now pricing in a nominal rate of 4.5% to 4.75% for February 2023, with the first interest rate cut coming in November 2023. Markets are now slowly coming to accept this new reality…
Markets Waking Up to Fed Reality
The market continued to work its way lower this week – waking up to the reality of the road ahead with respect to higher rates and inflation. However, some believe the Fed should pause immediately…
Fed Faces a Long Fight with Sticky Inflation
CPI and Core PCE continued to rise over August. Core PCE – the Fed’s preferred measure – was more than double expectations and 3x the Fed’s target rate. Rates are to remain higher for longer.
Wage Growth of 5.2% to Strengthen Fed’s Resolve
The US economy added 315K jobs in August. Good news. However, wage inflation ripped higher at 5.2% YoY. Based on this, it’s likely the Fed will continue with a period of ‘unusually high’ rate hikes to reduce demand and wage inflation.
For a full list of posts from 2017…