Apple managed to beat very low expectations. However, revenue fell for the second consecutive quarter. Nonetheless, the stock was slightly higher on the news. Consider it a safety trade. More broadly, stocks fell today as they wrestled with the threat of more regional bank failures and a committed Fed. Here’s my basic question: will we see three rate cuts before the end of the year? My view is we won’t see a single cut (let alone three). If I’m right (and I may not be) – there will be a painful adjustment in the market.
“One and Done”… Not Yet
The market wanted “one and done”… that was the expectation. Powell spoiled the party. Whilst the market expected a 25 bps Fed hike – what it did not know was whether any hike would be ‘dovish’ or ‘hawkish’? For example, a dovish hike would be something like “we see the end of inflation… we’re winning the fight”. On the other hand, a hawkish tone would be sentiment to the effect of “it’s still premature to make that call”. We heard more of the latter… less of the former.
A Very Narrow Market
Last week all eyes were on large cap tech earnings. They delivered a mixed bag… but on the whole ‘better than feared’. Q1 earnings didn’t fall off a cliff. Single digit growth (top and bottom line) was largely cheered – which highlights how low expectations were. Next week eyes turn to the Fed. The market has priced in a 25 bps hike for May – but will it be a ‘dovish’ hike – where they offer language to suggest a pause in June? Or will they say “there’s more work to do”?
Banks Surge on Earnings…
JP Morgan kicked off Q1 ’23 earnings season with a record beat. The US’ largest bank by assets saw strong deposit inflows as it raised its guidance for net interest income. The question is how will regional banks report? It’s likely to be a different story. Meanwhile we had a host of important economic data this week – showing inflation is cooling (albeit very slowly) and the economy is stalling. But there was little which will stop the Fed raising rates by 25 bps May 2nd…
For a full list of posts from 2017…