September has started in a very typical September fashion. Down! It’s traditionally the worst month of the year in terms of returns. But that’s not a bad thing… As longer-term investors – it’s great when things go on sale. That’s when we get to sharpen our pencils on higher quality businesses. And for those who missed out four weeks ago (where you needed to act fast) – it’s possible you will get another chance this month. As I wrote recently – the rapid 10% surge in equities over 4 weeks did not fill me with a lot of confidence…
Powell Takes a Victory Lap
Fed Chair Powell didn’t disappoint at Jackson Hole – giving the market what it wanted to hear… rate cuts are coming. All that remains how many and by when? That’s not something Powell was ever going to offer (why remove optionality) – but the market is willing to bet we receive at least three cuts by year’s end. All eyes now turn to two major economic reports: (i) PCE due Aug 6 and (ii) Aug nonfarm payrolls due Sep 6. For e.g., if Augusts payrolls are similar to June’s (where only 114K jobs were added) – we could see the Fed cut rates 50 bps come Sept. What signal will that send to the market?
So Maybe Valuations Matter?
When I made the difficult decision to reduce my exposure to large-cap tech earlier this year – I wasn’t sure how things would pan out. In the short-term – I looked foolish. These stocks surged higher without me. However, since then, large-cap tech is trading lower than when I sold it (on average). But is this a dip you should buy? I don’t think so – not just yet. The broader index is only 6% off its all-time high. That’s nothing in the larger scheme of things. I’m choosing to remain a little more patient – where I think the index could correct somewhere in the realm to 10-12%.
Powell’s Ready to Cut… And Not Just Once
Today Fed Chair Powell delivered precisely what the market wanted to hear… help is on the way. As a perpetual (closet) dove – Powell did his best to stay balanced however the cat is now out of the bag. Rate cuts are coming. And there will be more than one. Consistent with other meetings – Powell said rate cuts are an option if economic data continues on its current path. In other words, it was the (same) scripted “data dependent” Fed.
However, there were some important nuances.
For a full list of posts from 2017…