This week we received my preferred leading economic (and stock) indicator: real personal consumption expenditures (PCE). As a preface to this missive – as a long-term investor – our job is to carefully assess the risks. Part of that equation is knowing exactly where we are in the business cycle. For e.g., do you think we’re at the beginning or middle of an economic advance (with more to go)? Are we about to encounter a significant change in direction? If so, is that change for the better or for the worse?
"Economic Cycles"
Cycles: Your Advantage over the Average Investor
I made a decision to reduce my exposure to large-cap tech a few months ago. The decision wasn’t an easy one… these are great stocks. For example, did I sell prematurely? The answer will be more obvious in 6-12 months when the cycle has had sufficient time to play out. For now (as was the case when I sold) – I think the downside risks meaningfully outweighed further upside gains. In this post, I explained how selling is a way of managing your risk. I was ensuring I banked the appreciable gains realized over the past few years. In light of the rotation out large-cap tech we’ve seen this week – I thought it was opportune to share some thoughts on (a) how I calibrate my portfolio in a changing environment; and (b) when to be aggressive and when to play defense. It all comes back to understand the economic cycle…
For a full list of posts from 2017…