The S&P 500 has had a fantastic first 6 months of the year – up almost 15%. That’s a welcomed relief from the miserable 2022. But are stocks now too expensive? What’s the premium investors are being asked to pay? There are a couple of ways we can assess this. For example, we can compare the earnings yield against the risk free rate of return (currently around 5.5% and going up). And whilst it’s always good to maintain some (long) exposure to the market – we need think carefully about how much (and where)
Banks Surge on Earnings…
JP Morgan kicked off Q1 ’23 earnings season with a record beat. The US’ largest bank by assets saw strong deposit inflows as it raised its guidance for net interest income. The question is how will regional banks report? It’s likely to be a different story. Meanwhile we had a host of important economic data this week – showing inflation is cooling (albeit very slowly) and the economy is stalling. But there was little which will stop the Fed raising rates by 25 bps May 2nd…
What Don’t We Know?
There are some things we know to be (mostly) true. Inflation is coming down. The Fed is closer to the end of its aggressive rate hikes. Growth is slowing. And earnings are likely to decline in Q1 (after a decline in Q4). But what don’t we know? What are the potential unknowns that could trip the market up? Three things to consider.
Market Has Bad Breadth
The S&P 500 is up about 3% to start the first quarter of 2023. On the surface things look good. But what if we look ‘under the hood’. Most sectors are lower – especially those which are economically sensitive (like banks, energy, small caps and materials). However, big tech is carrying the market higher. That’s not necessarily a good sign.
For a full list of posts from 2017…