Several weeks ago I suggested investors consider reducing their exposure to 10-year treasuries. At the time, the world’s most important debt security was yielding around 3.80%. They would continue to fall to a near-term low of 3.60%. In this case, the timing was good as these yields have rallied some 60 bps in turn crushing bond prices. For example, EDV and TLT have dropped more than 10%. So why are 10-year yields rising in the face of Fed cuts? There’s a good reason: term premium. Bond owners demand a premium if owning the debt of a fiscally irresponsible government. And this has major implications for investors…
Howard Marks on Asset Allocation
Sometimes I wonder if the ‘cyber ears’ are listening? One day after I shared my thoughts on how investors should prepare their defense – Howard Marks – shared his latest thoughts on asset allocation. His post was the ideal follow-up to my recent post… where I talked about finding the right balance between risk and reward. Marks’ latest missive reminds us that the investment landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent decades – where the popular “60/40” portfolio may not work in the years ahead… and now is the time to think more about defense (vs offense)
Are Chinese Stocks ‘Investable’?
The recent rally of over 25% in Chinese was something we’ve not seen in over a decade. Beijing’s ‘stimulus blitz’ excited both institutional and retail investors alike. As context, China has struggled with deflationary pressures due to a prolonged real estate downturn and weakening domestic consumer confidence. In addition, a slew of economic data in recent months has missed expectations, raising worries the world’s second largest economy may not achieve its 5% full year growth target. The question is can the central government turn things around with more stimulus? I doubt it….
It’s Not Only Falling Inflation & Growth Risks Driving Rate Cuts
As inflation continues to moderate and the employment picture weakens – markets are trying to gauge just how much the central bank will move. A 25 basis point (bps) cut for September is now a 100% probability according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. There’s a 63.5% chance of a 25 bps cut; and 36.5% of a 50 bps cut. Markets clearly want 50 bps… but they also know that very rarely is there just “only one rate cut”. This post explores the relationship between debt growth (across all sectors) and the overall trend for interest rates. It’s a relationship which is not often discussed – but would be remiss of investors to ignore.
For a full list of posts from 2017…