Last week offered plenty of macro data for traders (and the Fed) to consider. Core PCE remains stubbornly higher at 4.2% YoY – moving higher month on month. However, there is signs of a slowing labor force – with job additions missing expectations. The question is whether the jobs market is now slowing enough for the Fed to end rate hikes? For example, total unemployment is very strong at 3.8% and there are almost 9M open jobs. That’s not a weak labor market…
Oil: Headed Back to $100?
November last year I felt there could be an oil supply shock in 2023 – sending the price back over $100. This week OPEC+ surprised the market by announcing cuts of 3.7M barrels of oil per day – around 4% of global supply. The price of WTI surged back above $80. I think we go higher from here… which won’t help Jay Powell’s fight with inflation.
Oil: 2023 Supply Shock Coming?
2022 delivered the market a nasty oil shock. But will it be the last? I don’t think so. The oil price shock in 2023 will be due to massive underinvestment from the US in hydrocarbons (which still power 80% of all our energy needs). And if oil should fall to $65 to $70 – that spells opportunity for the year ahead – where I see oil back above $100.
Dollar Index, Gold and Oil all Surge
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is driving the demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, gold and bonds. Where to from here?
For a full list of posts from 2017…