Bear Market Rally? Or Something More?

About 100 of the 500 S&P companies have reported Q4 2022 earnings. TL;DR is they are ‘average’ at best. Most have barely met already lowered expectations. What’s more, forward guidance is weak. However, the bulls are betting on inflation continuing to plunge forcing the Fed to cut rates later in the year. I’m not yet prepared to support that thesis… with services inflation still running at 5.2%. There are some signs things are improving.

Fed Aftermath

Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google have all been crushed post earnings. Apple is the ‘best’ performer – down approx 13% the past two weeks. What’s next for large cap tech? I see more downside… and this post explains why.

We’ve Seen This Script Before

Q3 2022 big-tech earnings are behind us – with only one winner. Apple reported inline results with weak guidance – but enough to send the stock 7% higher. The rest however were slaughtered on weak earnings and forward guidance. But it was the Facebook’s “metacurse” which sent the stock reeling almost 30%… Amazon was also crushed on a poor Q4 outlook.

For a full list of posts from 2017…