2022 delivered the market a nasty oil shock. But will it be the last? I don’t think so. The oil price shock in 2023 will be due to massive underinvestment from the US in hydrocarbons (which still power 80% of all our energy needs). And if oil should fall to $65 to $70 – that spells opportunity for the year ahead – where I see oil back above $100.
"Asset Allocation"
My Hypothesis into Year End
I have four key hypothesis into how I am positioned for year end: (i) 2023 will bring a recession; (ii) earnings will contract; (iii) multiples will compress; and (iv) it’s premature to think about fighting the Fed. Let’s explore…
More Tricks than Treats?
The market is up around 11% from its recent lows. Its rallying on the hope of a dovish Fed. My advice is tread carefully… you might get ‘tricked’ rather than ‘treated’ this Halloween. The upside does not handily outweigh the downside risks. Bear markets are known to do just that…
Does the Bullish Case Hold Water?
Markets tried hard to rally this week – but was met with strong selling. I lay out both the bullish and bearish case… where I favor lower prices with a S&P 500 target of 3200
For a full list of posts from 2017…