The S&P 500 is up about 3% to start the first quarter of 2023. On the surface things look good. But what if we look ‘under the hood’. Most sectors are lower – especially those which are economically sensitive (like banks, energy, small caps and materials). However, big tech is carrying the market higher. That’s not necessarily a good sign.
"Asset Allocation"
Bear Market Rally? Or Something More?
About 100 of the 500 S&P companies have reported Q4 2022 earnings. TL;DR is they are ‘average’ at best. Most have barely met already lowered expectations. What’s more, forward guidance is weak. However, the bulls are betting on inflation continuing to plunge forcing the Fed to cut rates later in the year. I’m not yet prepared to support that thesis… with services inflation still running at 5.2%. There are some signs things are improving.
A Challenging Year – What Did We Learn?
It was a difficult year for traders and investors alike. The Index is on track to lose at least 19% – it’s worst year since 2008 and 4th worst since 1945. However, this year also offers us valuable lessons. What worked? What didn’t? What could we have done differently? And what can we take into 2023…
What Will Lead in 2023?
What sectors will lead the market higher in 2023? Tech? Financials? Healthcare? Industrials? Tech was the right play for the past decade – with rates anchored at zero and the Fed printing money. That has now changed. Tech will unlikely act as strong as it did… which requires a shift in asset allocation by investors.
For a full list of posts from 2017…