by adrian tout | Sep 9, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds, Real PCE, Valuations
4.2% is “full” employment – but is that where we’re going? Stocks still aren’t cheap based on low equity risk premium Why the Fed may have scope to cut (vs being forced to cut) What’s your answer to each of the following: Do we have...
by adrian tout | Sep 7, 2024 | AI, Charlie Munger, Employment, Sahms Rule, Soft Landing, Yield Curve
AI chip stocks get crushed (again)… it’s not done Employment is slowing… soft-landing? 10/2 Yield Curve un-inverts – recession warning? Last weekend I questioned whether markets could break out to the upside; or perform what trader’s...
by adrian tout | Sep 4, 2024 | AI, Asset Allocation, Employment, NVDA
Will September bring opportunity? Investor enthusiasm starting to wane for NVDA Sept 6 Aug Payrolls… 4.4% unemployment could send signs of panic September has started in a very typical September fashion. Down! It’s traditionally the worst month of the year...
by adrian tout | Aug 31, 2024 | Asset Allocation, Fed Reserve, S&P500
Things are starting to moderate Bad news will now become bad news (a change from the past 12 months) Why equal weight exposure is a safer bet than the broader S&P 500 Markets are closed Monday for the labor day long-weekend. I thought I would use the opportunity...
by adrian tout | Aug 30, 2024 | Interest Rates / Bonds, Real PCE, S&P500, Uncategorized
Markets finish the month on a high Possible warning sign with July PCE – as savings rates plunge Bonds are pricing in 6 to 7 cuts over 12 months… is that too much? Eight months down. Four to go. After shedding almost ~10% to start the month – the...
