by adrian tout | Oct 12, 2024 | Inflation, Interest Rates / Bonds, Money Supply, S&P500, Valuations
Words: 1,938 Time: 8-9 Minutes Expanding money supply; lower rates and fiscal stimulus all help stocks However, will expanding money pressure inflation? And how will growing debts and deficits impact bond yields? Yesterday’s post outlined why investors should...
by adrian tout | Oct 11, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates / Bonds
Core (services) remains stubbornly high due to wage growth Ignore any noisy jobless claims due to hurricanes and strikes Fed to go only 25 (best case) in November In a perfect world, inflation should be boring. Boring is good. However, when you inject an additional...
by adrian tout | Oct 9, 2024 | China, Debt, Investing Lessons
Words: 1665; Reading Time: 7 Mins Why the rally in Chinese stocks fizzled Short-term growth or long-term stability? China stocks are investable… with a caveat The recent rally of over 25% in Chinese was something we’ve not seen in over a decade… For...
by adrian tout | Oct 8, 2024 | Investing Lessons, Middle East, Real GDP, VIX
Words: 1036; Reading Time: 5 Mins Geopolitical risks rising, but impact remains contained (for now) The market’s tug of war between conflicting signals Continue to maintain long exposure despite volatility In my experience – growth ultimately defies fear....
by adrian tout | Oct 5, 2024 | Employment, Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds, S&P500, Uncategorized
Economic data deviates from expectations Manufacturing sector lacking incentives to invest 254K monthly job additions masks weakness w/full-time jobs It was a good week for stocks – buoyed by a strong monthly jobs print. However one hot night doesn’t make...
