by adrian tout | Apr 5, 2024 | Employment, Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds
303K jobs added not as strong as the headline suggests Full time jobs were down 6,000 (as part-time work surges) 10-Year yield expects rates to be higher for longer With any headline number – it pays to look under the hood. Rarely does the headline tell you...
by adrian tout | Mar 28, 2024 | Bubbles, Lessons, S&P500
A banner quarter – but can it continue? Only 5 times since 1926 has the S&P 500 returned more than 40% China horribly underperforms… but now looking cheap If you asked me at the end of December whether I thought the S&P 500 would be up ~10% at the...
by adrian tout | Mar 26, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds
Why does the Fed need to cut? Economic (and financial) stimulus goes beyond the Fed What’s actually ‘restrictive’ about financial conditions today? Markets have a spring in their step in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee...
by adrian tout | Mar 21, 2024 | Employment, Fed Reserve, Investing Lessons, Recession, S&P500, Sahms Rule
The thing about market adages Will Powell be cutting rates into rising unemployment? And why this matters a great deal for the S&P 500 “Don’t fight the Fed” is a popular Wall St. adage for investors. The phrase was coined by well known investor...
by adrian tout | Mar 20, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates / Bonds
Powell sticks to the dovish script Tapering of QT coming “fairly soon” is the bigger story Equities and bonds reacted very differently… one will be right Investors were on tenterhooks going into today’s Fed interest rate decision. Would we see...