by adrian tout | Jul 26, 2024 | Inflation, Investing Lessons, Real PCE, Soft Landing, Uncategorized
Real PCE – the most reliable leading economic indicator – rises YoY ‘Yellow flags’ with savings rate and rising credit delinquencies Keeping a close eye on real wages (which drives spending) The market received three important data points this...
by adrian tout | Jul 25, 2024 | Big Tech, Investing Lessons
Analyzing the bull market of 2022 to 2024 Two mega tech names have reported – investors are worried Whilst we can’t predict the future – we can always plan “For that which a man wishes, that he will believe” — Charlie Munger From...
by adrian tout | Jul 22, 2024 | Big Tech, Cycles, Lessons, Uncategorized
Is it a rotation out of tech or something more? The reaction to (tech) earnings this week will be important And ‘part II’ of the importance of cycles in markets Yesterday I shared why it’s important we take time to understand the nature of economic...
by adrian tout | Jul 20, 2024 | Big Tech, Economic Cycles, Fed Reserve, Forecasting, Inflation
Have we seen ‘peak’ large-cap tech this cycle? What the average investor doesn’t typically do The indicator which will drive the Fed to cut rates Selling is harder than buying. I made a decision to reduce my exposure to large-cap tech a few months...
by adrian tout | Jul 16, 2024 | Consumer Spending, Interest Rates / Bonds, Investing Lessons, Real PCE, Retail Sales
Why mainstream’s read on retail sales is flawed Russell 2000 and non-tech stocks surge on likelihood of rate cuts Consumer spend trends will remain my focus in 2024 The rotation out of large cap tech into value names (and riskier smaller cap stocks) continued...
