It’s been nearly two months since we updated the website.

As regular readers (and subscribers know) for the past 6+ months – we only provide the (almost) daily updates via our newsletter service.

And I am pleased to say it’s been well received (and preferred).

Very few people have chosen to leave and a “hundreds” of folks have joined! Again, welcome!

Below are the titles of the posts we issued to subscribers over November and December:

November

December

3 Key Trading Themes the past 2 months

  • Bullish Bitcoin however Futures Trading changes things
  • Bullish Oil – less so Gold
  • Bullish Stocks and Expecting a Santa Rally on Tax Reform

Let’s visit some of the themes explored… and what I am watching.

2017 – Bitcoin Mania

First up, the mania that is Bitcoin.

We have written about crypto (and specifically blockchain) on a few occasions – some of the more recent missives below for those still coming up to speed:

If I was to give you 5 key points on Bitcoin – they are

  1. The underlying tech blockchain has tremendous promise;
  2. Bitcoin also has promise however 3 primary (scaling) challenges remain (and they are not tech based);
  3. The bubble is not yet done – targeting $25K (up to $50k) in 2018;
  4. Futures trading changes the playing field – with professional ‘shorts’ set to join the “trading party” soon enough; and
  5. Consider risking ‘house money’ on this trade – not your own. Take phased profits.

Oil Looks Set to Trade Higher

A second theme was the reversing fortunes for oil. 

It looks to be past it’s troubles of the past 2-3 years.

I offered traders a couple of trading ideas and so far they are going very well. I expect oil to keep moving higher as OPEC and Russia continue to try and drive the price higher with production cuts (as demand improves)

Below is the weekly chart I generated in November – looking for near-term resistance around $59/b 

Fundamentally, the key to supply may sit with US shale.

If they keep pumping out volume – then prices may struggle to get back US$80/b

Bearish the Aussie Dollar 

A third theme (with strong conviction) is selling the Aussie dollar against the US dollar.

With the Fed set to continue raising rates (pending what we see with inflation) — and the RBA acting like a dear in the proverbial headlights – the yield difference between these two currencies is narrowing.

If you combine that with the economic outlook – it’s hard to be Aussie dollar bullish.

For example, US consumers have develeraged and confidence is strong. Their business investment is growing with corporate profits strong (and about to get better).

This contrasts with a Chinese dependent Aussie economy – which remains privately mortgaged to the hilt.

From Australia’s lens, they will be hoping and praying (a) house prices don’t fall; and (b) rates don’t rise

Enjoying the Santa Rally!

In November we said to expect a Santa Rally. 

And we got it!

Whilst December is traditionally a strong month – we had a weekly bullish trend – and the promise of tax reform becoming a reality.

Sure enough – stocks have rallied sharply this month – and will likely end the year strong into 2018.

Feel free to browse the posts of the past couple of months.

And if you like the content – subscribe!

That way you will never miss a post.

Regards
Adrian Tout

2 thoughts on “Recap of Blog Posts over Nov/Dec”

  1. Mate, Coinbase won’t let you convert your Bitcoin back into cash for Aussie customers. Apparently they are working on it. Any ideas how to cash out?

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