It’s been nearly two months since we updated the website.
As regular readers (and subscribers know) for the past 6+ months – we only provide the (almost) daily updates via our newsletter service.
And I am pleased to say it’s been well received (and preferred).
Very few people have chosen to leave and a “hundreds” of folks have joined! Again, welcome!
Below are the titles of the posts we issued to subscribers over November and December:
- Nov 01: What I love about Bitcoin… And Why Govt Will ‘Copy’ It
- Nov 03: New Fed Chair a Duplicate – Stocks Give Thumbs Up
- Nov 04: Did You Buy Apple? And Where to Buy Bitcoin
- Nov 05: Oil Continues its Rally – Watch it help Lift Inflation and (Eventually) Rates
- Nov 07: XJO: 6,000 Forecast Achieved! Now What?
- Nov 08: 2 Factors to pulverise the AUD in 2018
- Nov 09: The Outlook for US GDP and Why Tax Reform is Key
- Nov 10: RBA Talks ‘Lowflation’ // Evaluating Mortgage Stress
- Nov 11: Weekly Charts: S&P500, XJO and US 10-Year Treasury
- Nov 13: Why Record Low Rates Can’t Last
- Nov 14: Why Bitcoin Fell 30% and Why it will Again
- Nov 15: The Law of Tax as it applies to Human Nature
- Nov 16: XJO: Trading “Per the Script”
- Nov 17: Yield Curve in Healthy Shape // No US Recession
- Nov 18: Markets Pause on Tax Reform // Trading Lessons from 2000 & 2008
- Nov 19: S&P 500 versus High Yield Bond ETF (HYG)
- Nov 19: Pulverising in AUD to Continue – How To Trade It!
- Nov 20: Bullish Oil with 2 Trades
- Nov 21: Morgan Stanley Joins Bearish Aussie Chorus
- Nov 22: Why I’m Not Betting Against Emerging Markets Yet
- Nov 23: Fed Minutes: It’s all about Inflation
- Nov 24: Getting Back to Trading Basics: Your Mindset
- Nov 25: Gearing up for the Santa Rally!
- Nov 27: Bitcoin – Where’s the Next Buying Opportunity?
- Nov 28: What Does a “Bitcoin Bubble” Look Like Anyway?
- Nov 29: Tax Cuts Pass Big Hurdle… Banks Love Powell
- Dec 01: Tax Reform “Fully Baked” Into Prices
- Dec 02: Oil Looking Bullish… and that Bodes Well for Inflation
- Dec 03: Bitcoin at ~$12K… and on Track for $25K in 2018
- Dec 05: Do-Nothing RBA ‘Does Nothing’
- Dec 09: S&P 500 and XJO Weekly Close
- Dec 10: Gold and the US Dollar Index
- Dec 11: What Happens If Government Ban Bitcoin?
- Dec 12: Bitcoin Traders: Get Ready to Swim with Sharks
- Dec 14: Fed Hawks and Watching the Yield Curve
- Dec 15: Why “The Biggest Bubble of all Time” Spells Incredible Opportunity
3 Key Trading Themes the past 2 months
- Bullish Bitcoin however Futures Trading changes things
- Bullish Oil – less so Gold
- Bullish Stocks and Expecting a Santa Rally on Tax Reform
Let’s visit some of the themes explored… and what I am watching.
2017 – Bitcoin Mania
First up, the mania that is Bitcoin.
We have written about crypto (and specifically blockchain) on a few occasions – some of the more recent missives below for those still coming up to speed:
- Want To Get Started With Bitcoin? Here’s How!
- Crypto: The 3 Big Challenges Ahead
- Jamie Dimon Selling Bitcoin Fear
- One Crypto I Really Like (It’s Not Bitcoin)
- Aussie Bitcoin Push & Global Finance Chiefs Warn
- Blockchain Trumps Bitcoin
- Crypto: Government Fear It & Mainstream Don’t Get It
- Did You Buy Apple? And Where To Buy Bitcoin
- What I Love About Bitcoin… And Why Govt Will ‘Copy’ It
- Why Bitcoin Fell 30% And Why It Will Again
- Bitcoin – Where’s The Next Buying Opportunity?
- What Does A “Bitcoin Bubble” Look Like Anyway?
- Bitcoin At ~$12K… And On Track For $25K In 2018
If I was to give you 5 key points on Bitcoin – they are
- The underlying tech blockchain has tremendous promise;
- Bitcoin also has promise however 3 primary (scaling) challenges remain (and they are not tech based);
- The bubble is not yet done – targeting $25K (up to $50k) in 2018;
- Futures trading changes the playing field – with professional ‘shorts’ set to join the “trading party” soon enough; and
- Consider risking ‘house money’ on this trade – not your own. Take phased profits.
Oil Looks Set to Trade Higher
A second theme was the reversing fortunes for oil.
It looks to be past it’s troubles of the past 2-3 years.
I offered traders a couple of trading ideas and so far they are going very well. I expect oil to keep moving higher as OPEC and Russia continue to try and drive the price higher with production cuts (as demand improves)
Below is the weekly chart I generated in November – looking for near-term resistance around $59/b
Fundamentally, the key to supply may sit with US shale.
If they keep pumping out volume – then prices may struggle to get back US$80/b
Bearish the Aussie Dollar
A third theme (with strong conviction) is selling the Aussie dollar against the US dollar.
With the Fed set to continue raising rates (pending what we see with inflation) — and the RBA acting like a dear in the proverbial headlights – the yield difference between these two currencies is narrowing.
If you combine that with the economic outlook – it’s hard to be Aussie dollar bullish.
For example, US consumers have develeraged and confidence is strong. Their business investment is growing with corporate profits strong (and about to get better).
This contrasts with a Chinese dependent Aussie economy – which remains privately mortgaged to the hilt.
From Australia’s lens, they will be hoping and praying (a) house prices don’t fall; and (b) rates don’t rise
Enjoying the Santa Rally!
In November we said to expect a Santa Rally.
And we got it!
Whilst December is traditionally a strong month – we had a weekly bullish trend – and the promise of tax reform becoming a reality.
Sure enough – stocks have rallied sharply this month – and will likely end the year strong into 2018.
Feel free to browse the posts of the past couple of months.
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