by adrian tout | Mar 21, 2024 | Employment, Fed Reserve, Investing Lessons, Recession, S&P500, Sahms Rule
The thing about market adages Will Powell be cutting rates into rising unemployment? And why this matters a great deal for the S&P 500 “Don’t fight the Fed” is a popular Wall St. adage for investors. The phrase was coined by well known investor...
by adrian tout | Mar 20, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates / Bonds
Powell sticks to the dovish script Tapering of QT coming “fairly soon” is the bigger story Equities and bonds reacted very differently… one will be right Investors were on tenterhooks going into today’s Fed interest rate decision. Would we see...
by adrian tout | Mar 14, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates / Bonds, Lessons
The thing about assumptions… The real danger comes from encouraging or inadvertently tolerating rising inflation and its close cousin of extreme speculation and risk taking – Paul Volcker Powell could effectively pivot (again) next week “What Just...
by adrian tout | Mar 12, 2024 | Bubbles, Generative AI, Investing Lessons
More on why investors should ask valuation questions Price-to-Sales ratios parallels to CSCO from ~25 years ago AI will be truly transformative – but that’s not the debate investors should be having This is a follow up to the post I issued yesterday. As...
by adrian tout | Mar 11, 2024 | Asset Allocation, Bubbles, Generative AI, NVDA
Semiconductors vulnerable to a sharp pullback The AI story is real – however there’s FOMO in asset prices NVDA’s fwd PE is reasonable at 35x – but not its price to revenue If you’re a regular reader – you will know I think the...